The Build Back Better Act, designed to augment the nation’s social services via a $1.75 trillion investment, faced opposition in December 2021 that left its fate unknown as the year came to a close. Now, two months into the new year, we examine the current status of the bill and consider two key questions: What do we know, and what’s likely to happen next?
What Do We Know? 5 Key Stages
Stage 1
The Build Back Better framework was introduced by the Biden Administration in October 2021. The stated intention was to invest in services addressing: childrens’ educational and caregiving needs, climate change initiatives and jobs, expanding access to healthcare, and bringing down costs for the middle class.
Stage 2
Aspects of the framework were introduced into the American Rescue Plan, which provided a $1.9 trillion investment in COVID relief and was passed by Congress in March 2021. Portions were also directed into the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which included a $1.2 trillion investment and was signed into law in November 2021.
Stage 3
Funding tied to climate change and home- and community-based services (HCBS) was directed toward the Build Back Better Act, which was introduced in October 2021 and initially outlined a $3.5 trillion investment. After negotiations within the House of Representatives, the proposed investment was decreased to $2.2 trillion.
Stage 4
The bill passed the House in November 2021 and went to the Senate, where the $2.2 trillion version of the bill failed to pass via reconciliation. The bill was considered “stalled” as of December 2021.
Stage 5
Lawmakers who support the bill are still working to salvage its key provisions and craft a version that can be put forth to a successful vote in the Senate. Advocates of the bill continue to encourage the Executive and Legislative branches to pass what could become the largest investment in the U.S. social safety net since the Great Depression.
What’s Likely To Happen Next? 4 Scenarios
Scenario 1
The scenario many political pundits expect to see is an attempt to reintroduce a “slimmed down” version of the bill. Some believe a bill with a $1.5 trillion price tag is more likely to pass, particularly because provisions like the child tax credit and investment in alternative energy are widely popular. Unfortunately, such a move inevitably removes other provisions with wide public support, including universal pre-K, paid family leave, and HCBS.
Scenario 2
Several lawmakers have hinted that a possible tactic could be breaking the bill into smaller parts. This would allow legislators to advance provisions popular with most voters—such as reduced childcare costs and expanded access to HCBS and other healthcare options—by introducing them as standalone legislation with a lower price tag. This could make it easier for them to ultimately pass the Senate.
Scenario 3
Another tactic could be to secure filibuster reform ahead of reintroducing the bill. Doing so would allow a “carveout” wherein legislation could be approved by a simple majority. Although several lawmakers have been pursuing this scenario by working to secure confirmation from the additional senators needed to pass such a measure, thus far, the 50 votes required cannot be confirmed.
Scenario 4
There is always the possibility that the bill gets abandoned entirely and never passes. This is unlikely given both the administration’s desire to see some portion of it made into law and the strong public support it has received; however, if the bill is not passed quickly, there may be larger forces that come to bear on its future. The 2022 midterm elections could create a significant change in the balance of power, making a successful compromise even less likely.